Mining Probability

Sorry for the noob question, but I was wondering if there is a way to calculate the probability of winning a block reward and the approximate average time it would take to win the block reward after the new 4th of July fork.

I tried to estimate given what I found on minerstat, but I don’t know how accurate it is. I tried to guess using my approximate xmrig H/S for Monero. Minerstat says about 4-4.5 USD a month, which at a current block reward of 127.59 = ~$15.3 should put me at an average block found rate of like 4-5 months?

I should probably just keep mining XMR, but it doesn’t come with all the dank memes rewards.

Current net hash is 44.89 Mh/s. Assume you have 10Kh/s then (44.89 Mh/s)/(10Kh/s)=4489

You will find one block in every 4489 blocks on average. Since we get one block per 5 mins, you will find one block per 15.58 days.

With the current solo mining setup, i believe Wownero will lose many miners with hashrate lower than 5Kh/s. To attract miners with low hashrate, devs can lower the block time to 2 minutes. This would not change miners average income but it would create more frequent payments, therefore more miners to network.

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That’s exactly what I needed, thanks.

For anyone else reading this that doesn’t want to figure out the other steps I’ll use my pathetic hash rate as an example.

  1. Convert your Kh/s or h/s to Mh/s. I have about 1400h/s = 1.4 Kh/s = .0014 Mh/s.
  2. Divide your sad hash rate against the net hash rate 44.89 / .0014 = 32064
  3. Divide this number by the number of blocks mined in a day to get the average numbers of days it will take. At 5 minutes per block, this will be 288 blocks per day. 32064 / 288 = 111 days = ~3-4 months on average.

Blocks per day can be found by dividing the number of minutes in an hour by the block frequency and multiplying it by the number of hours in a day.
For a block every 5 minutes: 60/5 * 24 = 288 blocks/day
Every 2 minutes: 60/ 2 * 24 = 720 blocks/day

If the blocks were found every two minutes 32064 / 720 = 44.5 days on average

I was actually really excited when I read that wownero was pro solo mining, but 3-4 months on average is a bit much, especially since it could realistically be over a year before I get a block (assuming the net hash rate doesn’t go up). And that’s mining wownero 24/7.

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yeap, devs really need to change block time to get small miners get back in game. I will mine Monero till they change wownero protocol rules.

At the same token though 1400 h/s mining monero is approx 2.14 usd worth of xmr a month so 3-4 months to be rewarded with over $15.00 worth of WOW is that not respectable? You’re also getting approx 127 WOW which is a solid % of the entire network compared to 3 months of monero mining you’ll get about 0.03 XMR from that.

I’m not a dev nor do I have a good understanding of how these things work but in order to make our income the same with more frequent rewards wouldn’t we have to also decrease the block reward itself?

I’ve actually done that calculation as well. The problem is that the risk is much higher. 3-4 months isn’t a lot, but it’s far from a guarantee. The risk I would be taking is that I start mining wownero, don’t hit a block for well over 3-4 months, things change dramatically (net hash goes way up, code changes, algo changes, etc.), and then I end up with nothing.

The reverse is also true. I could smash 3 blocks within those first 3-4 months. It’s way more like gambling when you have low powered hardware.

You are right about the rewards going down per block if the time to block was changed to two minutes, but it would be more likely that I would hit one and end up with something instead of gambling for the “big” payout.

I’m also not a dev, don’t understand anything, and don’t even have any stake in wownero yet. I’m just someone who found wownero, got excited, wanted to mine it, and am now trying to figure out if I’ll be wasting electricity for nothing for the next several months.

I could be wrong but one issue we might be looking at if the block time was reduced to 2 minutes is a reduction in network security (that has probably already occurred from the much lower difficulty we currently have). Perhaps it would be offset by a higher overall hash rate due to being more inclusive to small miners but I’ve got to stop speculating now since I don’t have a good enough understanding.