Sorry for the noob question, but I was wondering if there is a way to calculate the probability of winning a block reward and the approximate average time it would take to win the block reward after the new 4th of July fork.

I tried to estimate given what I found on minerstat, but I don’t know how accurate it is. I tried to guess using my approximate xmrig H/S for Monero. Minerstat says about 4-4.5 USD a month, which at a current block reward of 127.59 = ~$15.3 should put me at an average block found rate of like 4-5 months?

I should probably just keep mining XMR, but it doesn’t come with all the dank memes rewards.